Petrotimes.vn – It is forecast that the national demand on urea in the 4th Quarter of 2012 is about 550 thousand tons while the supply is approximately 850 thousand tons. The urea demand is currently quite low as most of the Autumn-Winter’s rice crop is coming to the 2nd and 3rd stage of fertilizing. Urea demand, therefore, will possibly decrease from the beginning to mid-October and increase by the end of October for the Winter-Spring crop of 2012-2013.
As for supplying, it is known that Ca Mau, Phu My and Ha Bac Fertilizer Plants are under stable operations and Ninh Binh Fertilizer Plant has also been put into operations by end of September with 85% capacity; therefore, total amount of urea production in the last quarter of the year is expected to reach 550 thousand tons. In addition to that, about 140 thousand tons of market inventory and 150 thousand tons imported in the last 3 months of the year will make the total supply reach 850 thousand tons. Thus, in the 4th Quarter of the year, the urea supply is about 300 thousand tons higher than its demand which also ensures a safe demand for Winter-Spring crop.
As for crop seasons, the basic Summer-Autumn rice harvest has been completed in Mekong Delta and Southeast regions while the Autumn-Winter crop has been sown or stepped to the 2nd or 3rd stage of fertilizing. It is planned that the sowing stage for Winter-Spring rice crop will be started from mid-October, highly focused in November and lasted to December. The sowing depends on the flood which is expected by experienced farmers in Mekong Delta to come slower than usual. It is currently in the harvest season in Northern regions. In Central Highlands region, the harvest is over and preparation works for the Winter-Spring crop will be started in November 2012.
As for pricing, according to the market updates, domestic urea pricing is stable and tends to decrease slightly due to low demand which so resulted in price lowering among competitive agents for capital recovery. In the world market, the price of CIS urea is about 380 USD/ton FOB while Middle Eastern urea imported to Thailand is about 420 USD/ton CFR. The world’s price tends to be stable with fewer fluctuation in recent weeks and slightly increase in October and year-end.
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